Predictions, part III: American League East preview and predictions

Opening night is mere hours away, so continuing on with the predictions, the AL East!

Boston Red Sox
Everyone is saying that the Boston Red Sox, if they stay healthy, are the team to beat this year in the AL East this year. I'm really not sold on this, for three reasons:
1. Dustin Pedroia, a rookie starting at 2B, who has played a total of 31 games in the majors.
2. A bullpen that, beyond Jonathan Papelbon (and perhaps even in part because of him) is one huge question mark. Brendan Donnelly is a loose cannon, J.C. Romero had a TERRIBLE 2006 campaign, Javier Lopez and consistency are two terms that have never been used in the same sentence, ditto for Kyle Snyder, and Joel Piniero couldn't hack it as a starter in Seattle for the last three seasons (double-digit losses in '04, '05, and '06). Hideki Okajima, a rookie from Japan, could conceivably be the only plus in the bullpen.
3. Beyond Ramirez and Ortiz, the Red Sox do not have one single position player who can consistently put the ball in play. The closest match to this might be Mike Lowell, and even that is still a stretch.
I don't think they're going to be quite as good as everyone thinks they will be. Worst case, they'll be fighting to hit .500. Best case, they'll win in a very weak AL East. They're not awful, in fact, they're probably the best team in the division - but in this division it's not really saying much.

Baltimore Orioles
The pieces are starting to fall in place for the Orioles, but they're still a year (or two) away from really contending in this division. The corner outfielders are strong as ever (Jay Payton in LF, and Nick Markakis in RF) but until they find a center fielder who can hit consistently (for either power or average) they'll never be considered one of the elite outfields in the AL. The infield has no real holes, and C Ramon Hernandez gives consistent production at the plate on a yearly basis. The real problems start to emerge when you examine the rotation and bullpen. Adam Loewen and Steve Trachsel, fourth- and fifth-starter (respectively), constitute a big drop-off in talent from their top three starters (Bedard, Cabrera, Wright). The bullpen will ostensibly need to pick up the slack, but big names (Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Chris Ray) are poised to have big seasons.

New York Yankees
Everyone in the past few years has had the Yankees as either laying a large egg or winning the World Series, but inevitably they end up somewhere in the middle. This year will be no different, as a distinct lack of depth and aging of name players will take its toll on the Bronx Bombers. The outfield will produce as expected, though the infield looks a bit more dicey. Cano will need to rebound from a rough '06, as will Rodriguez. Mientkiewicz is a distinct step down in talent at 1B. The bullpen, beyond Mariano Rivera, is as unreliable and unpredictable as it was in '06, as no major upgrades were made.

And, by the way, Carl Pavano is starting to open the season. Clemens will eventually return to the Yankees, but it will be far too little, far too late, as Mussina and Pettitte continue to decline. Kei Igawa is a bright spot in a rotation that will not have a great year in '06.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Rays will not make much noise, but they'll be better this season than they have in the past. Returning in the batting order includes Carl Crawford, Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and Rocco Baldelli. The lineup will need to learn how to string hits together and move runners over in order to be successful in a weak division. The pitching rotation is solid, with Scott Kazmir, Jae Seo, and Casey Fossum looking to turn in consistent performances in every start. The bullpen is thin, but growing - Ruddy Lugo is the only known commodity in relief this year. 80 wins is a lofty goal, but perhaps not out of the question for a Tampa Bay team that may finally be learning how to put together a successful season.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays loaded up on offense this off-season, but their inability to land one more big name pitcher may be their undoing this year. The Blue Jays are banking on Frank Thomas to equal his production of last year with the A's, although with his advancing age it doesn't seem likely (although, it didn't seem likely that Thomas would produce as he did last year, and look what happened). Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus anchor a lineup geared more for power, but middle-infield of Royce Clayton (SS) and Aaron Hill (2B) raises more than a few eyebrows. Alex Rios will seek to build on his '06 rebound. Tomo Ohka (fourth starter) has massive control issues, yet sports a deceptively low ERA.

Predictions:
1. Boston
2. Baltimore
3. Toronto
4. New York
5. Tampa Bay